Article | Zhongguancun Energy Storage Industry Technology Alliance
In the past two years, multiple top-level policies of the country have proposed vigorously developing energy storage on the power generation side, and various provinces have also introduced policies to encourage or force the construction of new energy storage, promoting the rapid growth of energy storage on the power generation side and becoming the main driving factor for the rapid growth of new energy storage installations in China.
The Zhongguancun Energy Storage Industry Technology Alliance and the Natural Resources Conservation Association (NRDC) jointly conducted the "Comprehensive Value Evaluation and Policy Research on Power Generation Side Energy Storage under the Dual Carbon Background", analyzing the current application status of power generation side energy storage at home and abroad, evaluating the applicable energy storage technologies and comprehensive value of power generation side energy storage for different power source types, researching and summarizing the business models of power generation side energy storage in key regions, and proposing policy recommendations for the large-scale development of power generation side energy storage, Looking forward to the development trend of energy storage on the power generation side in the future, providing reference for policy formulation departments to introduce relevant incentive policies.
On December 9, 2022, Zhang Xing, Senior Research Manager of the Zhongguancun Energy Storage Industry Technology Alliance, shared the research results at the "China ASEAN Energy Storage Industry Summit Forum".
There are two main types of energy storage on the power generation side in China in terms of usage:
The first type is auxiliary thermal power dynamic operation. It can reduce the cost of equipment maintenance and replacement, improve the efficiency of thermal power units, and thereby reduce carbon emissions.
The second type is to achieve new energy friendly grid connection. Wind and photovoltaic power generation are influenced by seasonal and meteorological factors, and have significant intermittency and randomness. By configuring energy storage systems, it can improve the friendly grid connection of renewable energy and promote the development and utilization of renewable energy.
As of the end of 2021, the cumulative scale of energy storage installed on the power generation side exceeded 2.5GW, a year-on-year increase of 65%. Among them, the newly added operating scale exceeded 1GW, a year-on-year increase of 2%. In the past 5 years, the compound growth rate of the cumulative installed capacity of new energy storage on the power generation side has exceeded *.
From the perspective of application scenarios, in the past 10 years, the cumulative installed proportion of new energy storage on the power generation side has ranged from 21.2% to 47.6%. Among them, the proportion of new energy storage installed on the power supply side was as high as 47.6% in 2020, and slightly decreased to 44.7% in 2021.
From the perspective of technological distribution, as of the end of 2021, the proportion of lithium-ion batteries in the energy storage on the power generation side was 97.5%, followed by 1.4% of liquid flow batteries, 1.0% of lead-acid batteries, and 0.1% of supercapacitors and flywheels.
Figure 1 China has put into operation a new type of energy storage installation on the power generation side (2017-2021)
At present, the application of energy storage on the power generation side is mainly based on a single technology, and the commercialization of thermal storage combined with frequency modulation is high, but the scale is limited; The new energy is separately allocated and stored, and the cost is borne by the new energy stations separately. The new energy has not yet fully entered the electricity market for trading, resulting in poor economic efficiency; At present, the main regulation demand on the power generation side is 2-4 hours of peak shaving, and large-scale independent shared energy storage is the main way of energy storage on the power generation side during the 14th Five Year Plan period. With the rapid growth of new energy installations, a single energy storage system can no longer meet market demand. By utilizing two or more energy storage technology routes, complementary performance advantages can be achieved, meeting the differentiated needs of different application scenarios and operating conditions, and avoiding the constraints and shortcomings of a single type of energy storage function. Hybrid energy storage systems will become a trend in the development of the energy storage industry.
In terms of comprehensive value, coal reduction and carbon reduction have high value in short-term and high-frequency application scenarios. The mechanism of coal reduction and carbon reduction value of energy storage in different application scenarios is different: assisting in primary frequency regulation of new energy power plants, energy storage achieves coal reduction and carbon reduction by replacing reserved reserve capacity; Assisting in secondary frequency regulation of thermal power, energy storage achieves coal reduction and carbon reduction by improving the efficiency of thermal power generation; Abandoning electricity and increasing power generation/peak shaving and valley filling, energy storage can achieve coal reduction and carbon reduction by replacing thermal power for peak shaving and deep peak shaving. In terms of reducing coal and carbon emissions, auxiliary new energy power plants have superior primary frequency regulation, followed by auxiliary thermal power plants with secondary frequency regulation. Energy storage peak shaving has poor effectiveness in reducing coal and carbon emissions.
The current generation side energy storage industry is still in its early stages of development, and its large-scale development is constrained by various factors.
Firstly, there is a lack of implementation mechanism for capacity leasing, and there is a certain degree of uncertainty in the revenue from capacity leasing.
Secondly, the spot market is in the early stages of construction, and most provinces are still unable to achieve arbitrage through the spot market.
Thirdly, the new version of the "Two Detailed Rules" will include independent energy storage as the main body of the auxiliary service market, but most provincial policies have yet to be implemented.
The fourth is that the value of energy storage capacity is gradually reflected, but the rules that reflect the value of capacity need to be further explored and practiced.
Fifth, the source of income is relatively single, making it difficult to achieve multiple values through participation in the market.
Sixth, a comprehensive market information disclosure mechanism has not yet been established, and the transparency of market rules is relatively low.
The seventh issue is that the energy storage technology route has not formed a final technical system, and key technologies are facing challenges.
In addition, the overall proportion of new energy participating in the electricity market is relatively low, and the energy storage of new energy distribution cannot be used as an independent market entity to obtain profits through the electricity market; The composition of energy storage value varies greatly in different application scenarios, making comprehensive value evaluation difficult.
With the policy allowing power generation side projects that exist in the form of distribution to participate in the market through joint cooperation with their respective power sources or through technological transformation, the breadth and depth of power generation side energy storage participation in the electricity market will be greatly expanded in the future, laying the foundation for market-oriented and large-scale development of energy storage. The development mechanism of new electricity installation supported by energy storage and peak shaving capabilities, as well as the policies of encouraging or forcing the construction of new energy storage in various provinces, have determined the potential for the integrated development of energy storage and renewable energy. With the gradual establishment and improvement of the policy system reflecting the green value of energy storage, the proportion of the green value of energy storage in the overall benefits of energy storage will continue to rise, promoting the better integration and development of new energy and energy storage.